000			02779mam a22004214a 4500
001			2351345
003			BD-DhUL
005			20160508142248.0
008			990318s1999 maua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 99022998
015			_aGB99-W0795
020			_a0262032724 (hc : alk. paper)
035			_a(OCoLC)ocm41039851
035			_a(NNC)2351345
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dUKM _dC#P _dOrLoB-B _dBD-DhUL
042			_apcc
050	0	0	_aHA30.3 _b.C55 1999
082	0	0	_a330.015195 _221 _bCLF
100	1		_aClements, Michael P.
245	1	0	_aForecasting non-stationary economic time series / _cMichael P. Clements and David F. Hendry.
260			_aCambridge, Mass. : _bMIT Press, _cc1999.
300			_axxviii, 362 p. : _bill. ; _c24 cm.
365			_aUSD _b25.00
490	1		_aZeuthen lecture book series
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 327-345) and indexes.
505	0	0	_g1. _tEconomic Forecasting -- _g2. _tForecast Failure -- _g3. _tDeterministic Shifts -- _g4. _tOther Sources -- _g5. _tDifferencing -- _g6. _tIntercept Corrections -- _g7. _tModeling Consumers' Expenditure -- _g8. _tA Small UK Money Model -- _g9. _tCo-breaking -- _g10. _tModeling Shifts -- _g11. _tA Wage-Price Model -- _g12. _tPostscript.
520	1		_a"In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting, they look at the implications for causal modeling, present a taxonomy of forecast errors, and delineate the sources of forecast failure.
520	8		_aThey show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors - interacting with model misspecification, collinearity, and inconsistent estimation - are the dominant source of systematic failure. They then consider various approaches for avoiding systematic forecasting errors, including intercept corrections, differencing, co-breaking, and modeling regime shifts; they emphasize the distinction between equilibrium correction (based on cointegration) and error correction (automatically offsetting past errors). Finally, they present three applications to test the implications of their framework.
520	8		_aTheir results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research, model formulation, the testing of economic hypotheses, and model-based policy analyses."--BOOK JACKET.
650		0	_aTime-series analysis.
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting _xStatistical methods.
650		4	_aTime-series analysis.
650		4	_aEconomic forecasting _xStatistical methods.
700	1		_aHendry, David F.
830		0	_aZeuthen lecture book series.
900			_aAUTH _bTOC
942			_2ddc _cBK
999			_c61821 _d61821