Jolliffe, I. T. Stephenson, David B. text Electronic books. nju Hoboken John Wiley & Sons 2012 2nd ed. monographic eng

electronic resource

1 online resource (304 pages) Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Forecast Verification; Contents; List of Contributors; Preface; Preface to the First Edition; 1 Introduction; 1.1 A brief history and current practice; 1.1.1 History; 1.1.2 Current practice; 1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits; 1.3 Types of forecast and verification data; 1.4 Scores, skill and value; 1.4.1 Skill scores; 1.4.2 Artificial skill; 1.4.3 Statistical significance; 1.4.4 Value added; 1.5 Data quality and other practical considerations; 1.6 Summary; 2 Basic concepts; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Types of predictand; 2.3 Exploratory methods. 2.4 Numerical descriptive measures2.5 Probability, random variables and expectations; 2.6 Joint, marginal and conditional distributions; 2.7 Accuracy, association and skill; 2.8 Properties of verification measures; 2.9 Verification as a regression problem; 2.10 The Murphy-Winkler framework; 2.11 Dimensionality of the verification problem; 3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Theoretical considerations; 3.2.1 Some basic descriptive statistics; 3.2.2 A general framework for verification: the distributions-oriented approach. 3.2.3 Performance measures in terms of factorizations of the joint distribution3.2.4 Diagrams for visualizing performance measures; 3.2.5 Case study: verification of cloud-fraction forecasts; 3.3 Signal detection theory and the ROC; 3.3.1 The signal detection model; 3.3.2 The relative operating characteristic (ROC); 3.4 Metaverification: criteria for assessing performance measures; 3.4.1 Desirable properties; 3.4.2 Other properties; 3.5 Performance measures; 3.5.1 Overview of performance measures; 3.5.2 Sampling uncertainty and confidence intervals for performance measures. 3.5.3 Optimal threshold probabilitiesAcknowledgements; 4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The contingency table: notation, definitions, and measures of accuracy; 4.2.1 Notation and definitions; 4.2.2 Measures of accuracy; 4.3 Skill scores; 4.3.1 Desirable attributes; 4.3.2 Gandin and Murphy equitable scores; 4.3.3 Gerrity equitable scores; 4.3.4 LEPSCAT; 4.3.5 SEEPS; 4.3.6 Summary remarks on scores; 4.4 Sampling variability of the contingency table and skill scores; 5 Deterministic forecasts of continuous variables; 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 Forecast examples5.3 First-order moments; 5.3.1 Bias; 5.3.2 Mean Absolute Error; 5.3.3 Bias correction and artificial skill; 5.3.4 Mean absolute error and skill; 5.4 Second- and higher-order moments; 5.4.1 Mean Squared Error; 5.4.2 MSE skill score; 5.4.3 MSE of scaled forecasts; 5.4.4 Correlation; 5.4.5 An example: testing the 'limit of predictability'; 5.4.6 Rank correlations; 5.4.7 Comparison of moments of the marginal distributions; 5.4.8 Graphical summaries; 5.5 Scores based on cumulative frequency; 5.5.1 Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS); 5.5.2 Quantile-quantile plots. edited by Ian T. Jolliffe, David B. Stephenson. 5.5.3 Conditional quantile plots. Weather forecasting Statistical methods Weather forecasting Statistical methods Evaluation Geology Science Physics NATURE Weather SCIENCE Earth Sciences Meteorology & Climatology Weather forecasting Statistical methods QC996.5 .F67 2011 551.63 Jolliffe, Ian T. Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons, ©2012 9781119960003 1119960002 9781119960010 1119960010 362107 MIL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/book/10.1002/9781119960003 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/book/10.1002/9781119960003 EBLCP 120206 20171115115031.0 ocn775302462 eng